11 December 2024
The automotive industry has seen significant changes this year. Electric vehicle (EV) sales, tariffs, motor shows, and residual values all made the headlines. In a new podcast episode, the Autovista24 team reviews the big stories from 2024.
This year has not been short on big automotive news. From residual value (RV) trends to battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations and from major motor shows to protectionist policies. But with many topics to choose from, which stories stood out to the Autovista24 team?
[PODCAST EMBED]
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Show notes
Mixed results for major European new-car markets in October
Hybrids hit new high in German new-car market
Did carmakers push BEVs to the front of the UK new-car market in November?
Monthly Market Update: Used car residual values slump further in Europe during November
Blessing or curse: The impact of EU tariffs on BEVs made in China
Highlights from the 2024 Paris Motor Show
Winners of the 2024 Autovista Group Residual Value Awards
BEVs struggle in 2024
After strong growth in 2022 and 2023, BEVs were closely watched in 2024. However, the powertrain has struggled in Europe’s new-car market so far this year.
The year started well, with the EU recording a 28.9% BEV registrations increase in January, according to ACEA. However, cracks began to appear in February, when this improvement was reduced to 9%. Then, the powertrain endured its first decline of 2024 in March, when it fell 11.3%. Since then, BEVs have been unstable.
The technology’s spread across European countries has become more diverse this year. The BEV volume and share has remained low in Spain and Italy, two of the region’s ‘big five’ markets. Meanwhile, Belgium and the Netherlands have surpassed these two countries.
Incentive and mandate impacts
BEVs started 2024 well in France, with an increase of 36.8% in January. However, figures dropped throughout the year. New, stricter incentives were introduced at the beginning of the year, which impacted Chinese carmakers in the country.
In Germany, the removal of subsidies in December 2023 heavily affected BEV registrations. After growing 23.9% in January, the market has endured seven double-digit declines so far in 2024. The worst slump came in August, down 68.8%, while November’s figures fell 21.8%.
From January to November, BEVs fell 26.1% in Germany. Its share dropped from 18% to 13.4% in this period.
In comparison, BEVs in the UK have fared better in 2024, with growth in every month of the year up to December. The region’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires carmakers to have a minimum 22% share of ZEVs in their total new-car sales.
Many individual brands and OEMs are unlikely to reach this target, which will increase to 28% in 2025 and 80% in 2030.
RVs decline in 2024
RVs have also struggled in 2024, declining in Europe’s seven major used-car markets. Residual values expressed as a percentage of new-car list prices (%RVs) reached a low point in November. Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland recorded their lowest %RVs of the year so far.
All seven markets have seen values drop since the start of 2024. Italy has suffered the biggest slump so far, followed by Austria and France. Six out of the seven countries posted their best result back in January, except for France which reached its high in February.
BEVs have deteriorated in the used-car market too. Three-year-old all-electric cars at 60,000km currently retain the lowest level of value of any powertrain in Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK. In Austria and Switzerland, BEVs were only behind compressed natural gas engines.
Meanwhile, hybrids have been strong across major used-car markets in 2024, currently leading the Spanish and Austrian markets. Petrol and diesel vehicles have remained stable and performed well compared to electric powertrains.
Overall, Autovista Group editors have reduced their outlooks for 2024 and beyond. Austria is expected to suffer the biggest year-on-year residual value decline of 9.5% by the end of the year. This is followed by Germany and the UK at 7.5%.
Values are expected to drop by 5.9% in France and 5.7% in Switzerland. Spain is predicted to have the smallest year-on-year decline of 2.3%.
Tariffs take effect
In October, the European automotive industry imposed countervailing duties on BEVs built in China. This process began in September 2023, when the European Commission launched an investigation into the unfair subsidisation of the BEV value chain in China.
It found that ‘the BEV value chain in China benefits from unfair subsidisation which is causing threat of economic injury to EU producers of BEVs.’ So, definitive tariffs were imposed at the end of October, measures will now be in place for five years.
Duties were based on the findings of the investigation and how companies cooperated with the process. However, import tariffs are not a new phenomenon. All goods imported into the EU are already impacted by duties of 10%.
In reaction to this, some carmakers will review their European strategies. This could include switching to other powertrains, including plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles. While still electrified, these technologies will not be affected by the duties.
Other manufacturers might be able to absorb the costs into their margins. There is also the possibility of setting up production locations in Europe to navigate around the duties. Companies will want to avoid passing on the costs to the consumer where possible.
Paris Motor Show positivity
On a more positive note, the Paris Motor Show returned for its 90th edition in October, with more than 500,000 visitors and 48 manufacturers. This came after a smaller turnout of 168,000 visitors and 37 exhibitors for the Geneva International Motor Show in February.
Many European and Chinese brands attended the Paris show, as well as other international marques. There were plenty of global debuts and world premieres over the seven days. In particular, domestic manufacturers commanded a big presence at the event.
For example, Renault unveiled the new Renault 4, a B-segment BEV inspired by its 20th-century predecessor. The fourth-generation Renault Twingo also made its first public appearance, joined by the Emblème concept.
Elsewhere, Dacia unveiled the Bigster, its new C-segment SUV. Alpine was also at the show with its A390_β, a precursor of the brand’s BEV fastback sportscar.
At Stellantis, Citroën unveiled its new C5 Aircross concept, C4 and C4X as well as the C3 Aircross. Peugeot brought its new e-408, the saloon’s BEV version, as well as new long-range versions of its models.
Chinese carmakers gather attention
Chinese carmakers gathered a lot of attention at the event, including Leapmotor International. The Stellantis-led joint venture, which launched operations in Europe this year, debuted its B10 C-segment SUV. Meanwhile, BYD unveiled its Sealion 7, a possible Tesla Model Y rival. Xpeng also wowed visitors with its tech-filled P7+.
Looking at other European brands, Skoda brought its new Elroq SUV, while the seven-seater Volkswagen (VW) Tayron SUV made its public debut. Mini had two global John Cooper Works debuts. Audi hosted the world premiere of its Q6 Sportback e-Tron. BMW and Ford also had their latest concepts and models on display.
Overall, the event had a large focus on new BEV models. Some carmakers opted for futuristic designs while others paid homage to vintage classics.
Important new cars launched
Some of the models on show in Paris have been covered in Autovista24’s Launch Report series. This includes up-and-coming models such as the Smart #3 and MG3. as well as well-established names such as the VW Tiguan and BMW 5-Series.
With insight from Autovista Group editors, each article explores the selected vehicle’s strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities.
This year has seen the launch of some important models, including the Ford Explorer, Citroën e-C3 and Volvo EX30. There has been a French flare too, namely with the Renault Rafale and the Peugeot 3008.
2024’s residual value champions
This year saw the return of the Autovista Group Residual Value Awards. These awards celebrate models with the highest value retention across eight different categories, ranging from small cars to large SUVs.
Dacia enjoyed great success, celebrating three wins. This included the Dacia Sandero’s victory in the Small Car category, the Dacia Jogger in the Compact Car category and the Dacia Duster in the Compact SUV category.
Mercedes-Benz also performed well, claiming two awards. This was for its Mercedes-Benz V-Class in the Large Car category. The other came in the Large SUV category with the Mercedes-Benz G-Class.
So, success was seen at both ends of the pricing spectrum. ‘Premium and affordable models are major money makers for carmakers. So, it is unsurprising that both premium and budget brands performed well in 2024,’ explained Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group.
The remaining winners were the Mini Aceman in the Small BEV category, the BMW i5 in the Large BEV category and the Porsche Macan in the Compact and Large BEV SUV category.
