12 December 2024
The UK’s new light-commercial vehicle (LCV) market continued to grow in November. Meanwhile, used stock, demand and prices aligned. Andy Picton, chief commercial vehicle editor at Glass’s, explores the trends with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.
The UK’s new LCV market recorded its fourth consecutive month of growth in November. Registrations rose by 10.5% year on year, with 30,300 new LCVs delivered to customers. This was the second-largest total for a November ever recorded.
In the year to date, 324,613 LCVs have been registered. This equates to an increase of 4.1% on the 311,754 units delivered at the same point last year.
Demand was positive across all sectors except for pickups, where registrations fell 20.4%. This reflects an ongoing trend for the segment that has been in decline throughout 2024. A total of 999 new vans below 2 tonnes gross vehicle weight (GVW) were registered in November. This meant a 128.6% increase on the same month last year.
Vans between 2 and 2.5 tonnes GVW recorded a 9.8% rise to 4,999 units over the same period. Deliveries of units between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes GVW increased by 13.5% to 20,504 units. This sector continues to be the most popular, representing 67.7% of all units registered during the month.
Ford leads again in UK
Ford once again led the market in November. The brand claimed three of the top five registration spots and four of the top 10 positions. The Transit Custom, Transit and Ranger pickup finished first, second and fourth respectively, while the Transit Courier finished 10th.
Stellantis Pro One saw the Vauxhall Vivaro finish third with 2,635 units. The Vauxhall Combo came fifth (1,416 units), the Citroen Berlingo in eighth (1,011 units), and the Peugeot Expert took ninth (861 units). The remaining spots in the top 10 were taken by the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter in sixth (1,353 units) and the Renault Trafic in seventh, with 1,178 units.
Electric forecast downgraded
Registrations of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at 3.5 tonnes GVW increased by 31.9% in November. 2,151 units were delivered, compared to 1,631 units 12 months ago. This represents a monthly market share of 7.1%.
In the year to date, 17,238 units have been registered, down 0.3% year on year from 17,289 units. The BEV share currently stands at 5.3% of the overall market, down from 5.5% recorded in the same period last year.
The year-long extension to the plug-in van grant has been welcomed. Manufacturers also continue to invest heavily in zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). However, a lack of van-specific charging infrastructure and effective government support has meant potential operators still lack the confidence to switch to all-electric technology in greater volumes.
However, November saw demand for BEVs increase for the second month in a row. With one month of the year remaining, the overall market share of 5.3% is lower than last year. It sits at just over half of the ZEV mandate target of 10% for 2024.
Overall sales are not expected to be any better than last year. The UK’s automotive industry body, the SMMT, has downgraded its BEV LCV forecast for the last quarter to only 20,000 units. This equates to a market share of 5.7%. The body expects BEV registrations to rise sharply next year, up to 38,000 units, and to 62,000 units in 2026.
Stellantis recently announced plans to close its Luton van plant and move electric vehicle production to Ellesmere Port. Production of internal-combustion engine (ICE) models is also expected to be moved overseas. This emphasises the competitive pressure within the industry and the lack of enthusiasm for zero-emission LCVs.
With previous warnings ignored, a government decision to review the ZEV mandate has been welcomed by the industry. Manufacturers need assistance to research and deliver products that operators can use, so that growth and decarbonisation can be achieved.
Meeting the UK ZEV mandate
Ford accounted for 30.5% of all new electric vans in November, registering 656 units. Peugeot came second with 419 units (19.5% share) and Volkswagen (VW) claimed third with 348 units (16.2% share). Vauxhall placed fourth with 302 units (14% share) and Renault fifth with 108 units (5% share).
By range, the Ford E-Transit Custom finished first, registering 554 units. The VW ID.Buzz Cargo van came second with 348 units, then the Peugeot e-Partner was third with 270 vans. The Vauxhall Vivaro Electric finished fourth with 267 units and the Peugeot e-Expert fifth with 149 vans.
The remaining top ten spots were filled by the Ford E-Transit (102 units) and the Renault Kangoo E-Tech (81 units). Then came the Toyota Proace City Electric (55 units), the Mercedes-Benz eVito (52 units) and the Citroen e-Berlingo (46 units).
After 11 months, BYD (100%), Peugeot (15.4%), Nissan (13.5%) and Maxus (12.2%) were the only manufacturers on track to meet 2024’s minimum 10% ZEV mandate sales share target. Closing in was Toyota with 8.7%, Vauxhall and VW were both further adrift with 7.1%, then came Renault at 5.3%. The remaining manufacturers in the top 10, Mercedes-Benz (5%) and Renault Trucks (4.8%) still have work to do.
An additional 171 BEVs were registered in the month under the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme (VETS). This allows for BEVs between 3.5 tonnes and 4.25 tonnes GVW to count towards a manufacturer’s ZEV share. This additional amount was shared between Ford, Iveco, Maxus, Mercedes-Benz, Renault and Renault Trucks.
The VETS registrations contributed towards an overall BEV monthly market share of 7.7% in November. Overall demand in the year to date grew by 1.6% on 12 months ago, with 18,773 units registered reflecting an overall BEV market share of only 5.8%, a drop from the 5.9% seen in November 2023.
The plug-in hybrid (PHEV) van market has grown slowly, with Ford and Toyota registering 698 units between them during November. Ford registered 509 Transit Custom PHEVs and Toyota delivered 189 Corolla Commercials. In the year to date, 1,841 Toyota Corolla Commercial, 1,425 Ford Transit Custom PHEVs and three LEVC VN5 vans have been registered.
Stock, demand and prices align
The used auction market has continued to tick along well, with stock levels, buyer demand and prices closely aligned. Physical attendance at auctions is on the rise, as is the number of unique buyers purchasing stock.
As overall market prices have reduced steadily over the year, stock has become more appealing and affordable. Vendors also seem to be more in tune with market sentiment, resulting in first-time conversion rates rising to 82.7% over the last month. Buyers continue to fight over the best examples where minimum prep is required.
The number of vehicles sold during November fell 9.8% but was up over 7.2% on 12 months ago. With a better mix of stock and buyer evident at present, the average selling price increased by 3.9% over the month. Prices have dropped 23.4% year-on-year, however, they remain 23.3% higher than in November 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of the vehicles sold at auction in October, 76.1% were Euro 6 at an average age of 59.7 months. Their average mileage sat at 72,676 miles compared with 73,030 miles in October. Used electric vans showed a slight improvement, with sales contributing to 0.9% of the overall market, up from 0.6% in October.
The average age of these vehicles fell to 75.8 months from 81 months. The average mileage fell to 37,867 miles from 39,316 miles. Euro 5 stock made up the remaining 22.9% of sales, down 2.3% on the previous period.
Age and mileage fall
The average age of sold stock fell from 84.1 months in October to 83.3 months in November. However, this was 5.4 months older than seen a year ago. Average mileage over the month also decreased, down 1.5% to 79,827 miles. This was also 0.5% lower than the average mileage for November 2023.
Sales of medium-sized vans continue to outweigh all others at auction, accounting for 36.7% of total auction sales in the month. Small vans accounted for 29.8% and large vans were at 22.9%.
Volumes of sold 4×4 pickup stock accounted for only 10.6% of all sales. This was down 0.5%, but the segment recorded the highest average sale price of £11,942 (€14,491), up 3.9% on October.
Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type at an average of 87,171 miles. This was a drop of over 2,250 miles on the previous month and over 7,500 miles annually.
UK conversions increase again
Overall, first-time conversion rates increased for the second consecutive month to 82.7% from 81.8%. This was 6.9 percentage points (pp) higher than 12 months ago. Broken down, conversion rates across the sectors were split relatively evenly.
The best conversion rates were achieved in the medium-van sector at 83.4% (up 3.5pp). This was followed by the small van sector at 83% (down 0.6pp) and the 4×4 pickup sector at 82.6% (down 2.7pp). The lowest conversion rate was recorded in the large van sector at 81.3%, but this was up 1.1pp year on year.
Used vehicles observed for sale in the retail market last month reduced by 0.7% to 46,175 units. Of these, 93.4% were diesel models, 3.7% were BEVs, 2% were petrol, and 0.6% were PHEVs. Of all vehicles on sale, 37.2% were valued at £20,000 or more, while 35.4% were on sale for between £20,000 and £10,000.
At the lower end of the market, those vehicles on sale between £10,000 and £5,000 increased by 0.2pp to 22% of the overall market. Meanwhile, 5.4% were on sale for less than £5,000. White vehicles made up just under half of all vans on sale at 49.4%, followed by grey at 16% and silver at 10.5%.
