- EVs are still the future
- The sudden revival of plug-in hybrids is predicted to peak at 10% of the market
- Sales of PHEVs is predicted to call as battery prices drop and EVs become less expensive
Plug-in hybrids are experiencing a sales resurgence, but they’re unlikely to surpass EVs in the long term, predicts Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Sales of plug-in hybrids have grown in recent years, boosted by popularity in China, and BNEF now expects them to achieve a higher peak market share than in previous analysis. However, that market share will likely peak at 10% of the global vehicle market in 2030, after which BNEF predicts sales will fall as battery price drop further and EVs become more affordable.
2025 Kia Sorento plug-in hybrid
In the U.S., plug-in hybrid sales hit a record high in 2023, according to the Department of Energy. With more than 250,000 vehicles sold, they represented about 20% of total plug-in vehicle sales, but less than 2% of overall new-car sales. Many plug-in hybrids lost the federal EV tax credit this year, and pricing was already generally less favorable compared to hybrids in 2023, so there’s cause to wonder whether this growth will continue.
After discarding technology it pioneered with the Chevrolet Volt, General Motors plans to reintroduce plug-in hybrids to its U.S. lineup in response to what the automaker views as softening EV sales. Toyota plans to push the electric range of its plug-in hybrids up to 120 miles, which would align with stricter California emissions standards calling for plug-in hybrids with at least 50 miles of electric range starting with the 2026 model year.
2023 Toyota Prius Prime
Plug-in hybrids are now the most expensive powertrain option in the U.S., according to BNEF, while in China prices have dropped below conventional internal-combustion cars over the past five years. That’s been accompanied by improvements in electric range and charging speed that make Chinese plug-in hybrids more useful as electric vehicles, the report says.
Yet BNEF still questions whether plug-in hybrids are actually driven in electric mode. An analysis of current research over the past decade found a range of 26% to 54% of kilometers driven in plug-in hybrids driven in electric mode, with some of the largest studies, “involving millions of cars in China” on the high end, according to BNEF. Numerous studies have shown that plug-in hybrids aren’t plugged in as often as is assumed when calculating emissions efficiency ratings—something regulators must address.
