21 November 2024
Modest growth for the EU new-car market in October did little to strengthen the region’s overall performance. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry looks at the data.
Despite year-on-year registration growth of 1.1% in October, the EU’s new-car market remained in a precarious position. This concerning development was confirmed by the latest data from the industry association, ACEA.
Across the first 10 months of 2024, the new-car market grew by 0.7%, compared to the same period last year. This was a 0.1 percentage point (pp) improvement over its position in September. With two months of registrations reporting to go, it remains unclear whether 2024 will be a positive, or negative one for new-car deliveries.
Smaller EU markets count
The 1.1% increase in October comes after large declines in two of the EU’s biggest automotive markets. Both France and Italy saw registrations drop, by 11.1% and 9.1% respectively. This equated to a total loss of 29,514 units across both regions compared with October 2023.
Two other large automotive markets saw drops in October. Deliveries in Greece shrank by 14.3% year on year and Belgium fell by 5.5%.
Spain and Germany both performed well in the month, with deliveries up 7.2% and 6% respectively. This was an increase of 18,612 units across the countries, leaving other markets to help bridge the gap.
This included Hungary (up 19.1%), Poland (up 17.6%), Austria (up 16.5%), the Netherlands (up 13.7%) and Portugal (up 10.3%). Although these markets posted smaller volumes than the big four, their cumulative total helped towards the EU’s 9,635-unit growth in the month.
BEVs bounce back
The EU’s battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market has had a rollercoaster 2024, with confidence in the powertrain under pressure. Some countries removed or amended their purchase incentives this year. Meanwhile, the introduction of tariffs on models built in China has also had an effect.
However, October was a positive month for all-electric technology. BEVs recorded a 2.4% increase in registrations, with 124,907 units delivered. This equated to a 14.4% market share, up by 0.2pp compared to October 2023.
While this helped improve the year-to-date tally, it was not enough to lift the technology into an overall positive position. Deliveries of the powertrain fell 4.9% year on year, while its 13.2% market share dropped by 0.8pp.
The technology saw poor performances across all major EU markets. In France, BEV registrations dropped by 18%, while Germany posted a 4.9% decline. Italy saw deliveries fall 12.8% and Spain saw a 5.7% decline, although both countries regularly post lower all-electric volumes.
The EU BEV market has come to rely on other countries across 2024. The increase in October was driven by positive results in Belgium (up 47.6%) and the Netherlands (up 32.2%). Together with France and Germany, these were the only countries to post five-figure BEV deliveries.
PHEVs in freefall
While BEVs returned to growth, PHEVs struggled in October. Even on traditionally lower volumes, registrations were 7.2% lower than in the same month last year. A total of 66,964 units were delivered, meaning a market share of 7.7%, down from 8.4% in October 2023.
Between January and October, registrations of the bridging technology were down 7.9%, with the 7% market share down 0.6pp year on year.
This loss comes despite a strong performance in Germany, where PHEVs were up by 18.2%. The Netherlands also saw strong growth, with figures up 44.3%, albeit on slightly lower volumes.
This performance meant that the electric vehicle (EV) market, made up of BEVs and PHEVs, declined in the month. Deliveries were down by 1.2%, with a market share of 22.1%, a drop of 0.6pp. Across the year so far, EV registrations have declined by 6.4%, representing 20.2% of the wider market, a 1.4pp drop.
Hybrid leads again
The hybrid category, made up of full hybrid (HEV) and mild hybrid (MHEV) models, was the EU’s volume leader for the second successive month. A total of 288,160 hybrid passenger cars were registered in October, up 17.5% compared to October 2023.
This left the technology with a market share of 33.3% in the month, up from 28.6% at the same point last year. In the first 10 months of 2024, hybrid powertrain registrations grew by 19.8%. The technology claimed 30.4% of the market, a 4.9pp improvement from the same period last year.
Only two larger markets recorded drops in hybrid volumes, with Belgium down 5%, and Italy declining 0.2%. Hybrids look ready to take the lead as the EU’s most popular powertrain, maintaining the position claimed in September.
Help from MHEVs
The rise of MHEVs has helped the wider hybrid category secure this success. Many carmakers have begun adding this powertrain to their range in place of pure petrol models. This means the supply of pure petrol vehicles is declining.
This can be evidenced in the numbers from France, and the UK. While the UK figures are reported by ACEA, they are not included in EU numbers. The French automotive agency PFA reports MHEVs as a separate powertrain. The technology made up 45.9% of total hybrid registrations in October.
The UK’s SMMT includes MHEVs with their respective petrol and diesel counterparts. Meanwhile, ACEA combines the technology with HEVs in its reporting. According to Autovista24 calculations, MHEV deliveries reached 32,239 units in October, accounting for 62.9% of all hybrids in the country.
Therefore, MHEVs are playing a crucial role in the domination of the hybrid market over traditional fuel types. The powertrain is a logical next step for carmakers to help lower CO2 levels from their existing model ranges. The figures suggest a shift in the marketed technology, as well as buying patterns.
Petrol no longer dominant
Hybrid’s rise exacerbates the decline of both petrol and diesel powertrains. Both continued to lose registrations in comparison to last year during October.
Petrol deliveries declined 6.8% in the EU last month, to 266,498 units. This meant a market share of 30.8%, down by 2.6pp from October last year. Across the first 10 months of 2024, deliveries of the fuel type fell 4.7%. This resulted in a market share of 34%, a drop of 1.9pp.
Although petrol is in a state of decline, it is still likely to end 2024 as the EU’s most popular powertrain. In October, hybrids outsold petrol by 21,662 units.
The gap between petrol and hybrids from January to October was 319,200 units. So, the year-to-date gap will likely be too great for the electrified technology to close in November and December.
But if petrol registrations continue to decline, 2025 could see hybrid technology lead the market. The gap between the two powertrains across the first 10 months of last year was 912,525 units. Therefore, hybrids have made up almost 600,000 units on the traditional fuel type in a year.
Diesel registrations fell 7.6% in October, although the fuel still recorded a market share of 10.9%, sitting above PHEVs. This was down from the 12% recorded in the EU during October 2023. Across the year to date, diesel deliveries declined by 10.8%, with its 12.3% market share down by 1.6pp.
Internal-combustion engines are ending the year in a much weaker position. So, 2024 could be the last year petrol leads the market, followed by the age of hybrid in 2025.
