08 November 2024
This year has been a challenging one for key European automotive markets, with new-car figures behaving unpredictably. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry looks at the situation.
After the relative stability of 2023, this year has produced mixed results for Europe’s major automotive new-car markets. In October, two of the continent’s biggest regions posted registrations declines, while another saw continued success.
The markets of France, Italy and Spain have exhibited different trends in 2024. One has seen consistent declines; one has fluctuated, and one has remained relatively stable throughout the year.
With 2024 drawing to a close, two of these markets are facing the potential of full-year registration declines. What happens in the next two months will, therefore, be crucial to their results.
France in freefall
The French new-car market is in a continued period of decline. October marked the sixth-consecutive month of falling figures, with data from PFA showing deliveries down 11.1%. This was exactly the same drop as recorded in September. It brought the year-to-date total down further, with a 2.7% fall.
During the month, France saw 135,534 units take to the roads, 16,854 fewer than the same period in 2023. The country has not recorded new-car registrations growth since April, with a bounce back after the early Easter. This affected four of Europe’s big five markets.
After a strong start to the year in January and February, the French new-car market was up 11.2% across those two months. At the end of April this dropped to 7%, but since then, a run of monthly losses has wiped out that good work. Year-to-date figures dipped into negatives in August, and have continued to worsen.
BEVs blow
For the third month in a row, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations declined. Deliveries were 18% down compared to October 2023 according to Autovista24 calculations. This meant the all-electric technology held 15.4% of the market in October, down from 16.7% recorded a year previously.
At the start of the year, the market was up by 36.8%. By the beginning of the second quarter, the cumulative figure had dropped to an improvement of 27.7%, while at the beginning of the third quarter, it was 13.3% up.
Now, at the start of the fourth quarter, the market is just 3.3% better off than it was over the first 10 months of last year. This is an improvement in market share of one percentage point (PP), with a 17% hold so far in 2024.
This latest run of poor results comes against the backdrop of tariffs being placed on Chinese-built BEVs. Introduced with provisional rates in July, these have now been ratified by the EU. Although Chinese carmakers are yet to confirm whether these costs will be passed on to the consumer, confidence in the market has likely been hit.
With incentive eligibility changing at the start of the year, effectively removing Chinese-built models from lists, these vehicles were able to count on their low price-points to remain popular.
Now, however, there is a threat that some of the country’s most popular cars could become more expensive. This includes the Dacia Spring, manufactured by Dongfeng and imported from China by Renault Group. With no lower priced BEVs, buyers may turn away from the market.
Petrol downfall continues
France’s October decline was mainly driven by another heavy fall in petrol registrations. This market has only achieved one month of growth in 2024, a slender 2.1% rise in February. Last month, registrations dropped 32.7%, the third consecutive month that figures have been down by over 30%.
This performance meant that last month, 17,670 fewer petrol models took to the country’s roads. This was the biggest volume decrease of all major powertrain types.
However, petrol was still the market leader in the month, accounting for 26.9% of all registrations, in what is becoming a very diverse market. This was down by 8.6pp year on year.
Petrol has struggled for traction in a number of European markets in 2024, but France has been the worst performing of the continent’s major markets. This trend continued in the year-to-date figures, with deliveries of the powertrain down by 19.7% across the first 10 months of the year.
Its market share has fallen from 37.2% between January and October 2023, to 30.7% in the first 10 months of 2024. It still dominates the market, despite its struggles.
Hybrid options increase
Petrol’s decline in recent months could be explained by carmakers offering more models with mild hybrid (MHEV) and full hybrid (HEV) drive types. With fewer petrol options available, and MHEVs closely aligned to internal-combustion engine (ICE) technology, it is logical that registrations of pure petrol would suffer.
In October, MHEVs increased their registrations by 63.1%, to 23,331 units. This continued a trend of growth, with year-to-date figures up 45.7% to 201,075 units. Meanwhile HEVs, which led the EU market in September for the first time, saw 31,459 units take to the roads, up 20.1% compared to October 2023. In the first 10 months of the year, figures are up 29.3%.
Neither fuel type was able to overtake petrol in terms of market share. MHEVs accounted for 17.2% of all registrations last month, while HEVs captured 23.2% of the market. But both powertrains did increase their year-on-year shares considerably, by 7.8pp and 6pp respectively.
Comparing both hybrid technologies with petrol, there is a slight correlation. While petrol deliveries were down by 17,670 units in October, hybrids were up by 14,294 registrations, a difference of just 3,376 units.
In the year-to-date, while petrol is down by 105,416 units, the performance of hybrid powertrains to increase registrations by 123,382. Hybrids were 36,832 deliveries ahead of petrol in this period.
Therefore, with more MHEV and HEV options in carmaker line-ups, it is likely this is affecting petrol sales, and increasing hybrid opportunities.
However, this hybrid growth did not extend to the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market. Deliveries were down 26.9% with 10,892 units registered. This equated to an 8% market share, down 1.8pp compared to October 2023.
Italy struggles again
Italy’s new-car market also struggled in October. Data from industry association ANFIA shows that 126,570 passenger cars were registered in the month, down 9.1% compared to a year previously.
This is the third-consecutive month that registrations have dropped in the country. The result leaves the market precariously close to entering negative growth for 2024. At the end of October, registrations were up by just 0.9% across the first 10 months of the year. All powertrain types posted declines in October, as the market struggled.
‘The demand crisis in Italy, and more generally in Europe, with the consequent contraction in production volumes, has created a situation of very serious difficulty for our supply chain, added to which are production costs – especially energy – in strong disparity compared to the rest of Europe,’ commented Roberto Vavassori, President of ANFIA.
‘[There are also] negative effects on the components of the slowdown in investments in new mobility technologies by manufacturers. This is without forgetting the uncertainty created by the objectives of the Green Deal, with the upcoming deadlines.
‘To address such a complex scenario as the one just outlined, in our opinion, it is absolutely necessary to restore the multi-year automotive fund, whose resources are essential oxygen for our supply chain,’ he concluded.
ICE drives declines
With Italy’s electric vehicle (EV) market less developed than other major markets in Europe, the country is reliant on its petrol and diesel registrations to help boost its monthly figures. However, in October, both powertrains suffered declines.
Petrol registrations were down 10.1%, with 35,007 registrations. This left the fuel type with a 27.7% market share, down by just 0.3pp compared to last year.
This drop impacted petrol’s year-to-date figures, which ended the month up by 4.6%, with 391,702 deliveries across the first 10 months of the year. This means the fuel holds 29.5% of the market so far in 2024, an increase of 1.1pp.
The decline of diesel is expected in registration figures, as buyers and carmakers turn away from the technology. In October, the powertrain saw deliveries drop by 19.7%, with 16,585 units taking to the country’s roads. This equated to a 13.1% market share, down from the 14.8% seen last year.
In the year so far, diesel is down by 21.6%, and holds a market share of 14%, a drop of 4pp. This is still higher than in some other markets, indicating that Italy places some reliance on the fuel type. Its monthly and yearly market shares are much higher than those of BEVs and PHEVs.
Combined, ICE deliveries fell 13.4% in the month, and between January and October, figures are down 5.6%. This ICE weakness is contributing to Italy’s uncertainty regarding its potential registrations performance by the end of this year.
Help from hybrids
In terms of volumes, hybrids, made up of MHEVs and HEVs, have been the market leader throughout this year. However, up until September, their figures were not high enough to beat the combined ICE total. However, for the second month, they were able to do so.
A total of 54,174 hybrids were registered in Italy last month, with the country’s figures merging HEV and MHEV numbers. This was still a decline, albeit by just 0.2% compared to October 2023. This meant that hybrids took a 42.8% market share, up 3.8pp on last year.
In the year to date, hybrids are up by 11.3% with 528,462 units registered. This has given the powertrain a 39.8% market share for the first 10 months of 2024, up 3.7pp year on year.
The October performance for hybrids confirms a change in attitudes in the Italian new-car market. Its market share in the month was 2pp higher than that of ICE, although in the year-to-date, its hold is still 10.3pp lower than petrol and diesel combined.
Yet, with more MHEV and HEV models available, as carmakers look to reduce fleet emissions ahead of next year’s EU CO2 emissions target changes, it is a trend that is likely to continue.
EVs continue their struggles
Italy has consistently failed to inspire its population when it comes to the uptake of EVs. Despite a jump in BEV registrations during June, when incentive funding was renewed in the country, the market has struggled this year. Subsidies were exhausted within the first month of their availability and the sector fell back to low-unit results.
In October, 5,023 new BEVs were registered in Italy, a drop of 12.8% compared to the same period last year. This figure made up just 4% of all registrations in the country. To highlight the struggle, this market share was only 0.1pp lower than that seen in October 2023. In the year to date, BEV volumes are up 3.3%, with a 4% market share, up 0.1pp.
PHEVs are performing even worse. Their volume of 4,282 units was 24.9% down year on year, and equated to just 3.4% of deliveries, down by 0.7pp. Across the year, PHEVs are down 24.3%, with their 3.3% market share down by 1.1pp compared to the first 10 months of last year.
This means that combined, EVs were down by 18.8% in October, with a 7.4% market share. With other major European markets constantly achieving EV shares of over 20%, Italy has a long way to go to be on par with them.
Spain stays positive
Alongside Germany, Spain was the only other country in the European big five markets to see growth in October. Data from industry association ANFAC shows the country’s new-car market grew by 7.2% last month, as 83,472 units left showrooms.
Although Spain consistently delivers the lowest volumes of Europe’s big five automotive regions, its market has been one of the most stable this year. It has only seen two declines, including one caused by the early Easter in March.
This has left the country’s year-to-date figures looking healthier than others, with deliveries up 4.9% to record a volume of 828,162 units. This is encouraging for a country that is looking to break the one-million-unit barrier by the end of the year.
‘Although the month has had two more working days, October is closing in positive territory again, which is good news,’ stated Félix García, ANFAC’s director of communications and marketing.
If the market manages to close the year with this trend, we could end 2024 with close to a million units. This is a barrier that Spain needs to overcome as soon as possible, not only for economic reasons for the country but also to continue advancing in the decarbonisation and renewal of the Spanish vehicle fleet,’ he highlighted.
Electric dreams
Like Italy, however, the country is struggling to entice buyers into EVs, although its market shares are stronger in comparison. Yet with one of Europe’s oldest vehicle parcs, the drive towards electrification is essential to help the country combat air pollution levels.
With this in mind, Spanish automotive authorities are calling for help from the country’s government to drive awareness of EV benefits.
‘It is necessary to remind citizens that they currently have aid for the purchase of BEV or PHEV until the end of the year which can add up to €10,000. This message would be stronger if we had a public awareness campaign from the public sphere that makes people aware of the advantages of switching to a zero or low-emission vehicle,’ added García.
In October, BEV registrations declined by 5.9%, according to Autovista24 calculations. A total of 4,766 units were delivered, giving the powertrain a 5.7% market share. This is a drop from the 6.5% seen in the same month last year.
Meanwhile, PHEVs saw deliveries increase by 3%, although this was still with a low volume of 5,142 units. The technology remains more popular than BEVs, with a 6.2% market share. This was down on last year, but only by 0.2pp.
Hybrid drive
Once again, hybrids, made up of HEVs and MHEVs, led the market in Spain. The low-emission technology saw a 28% increase in deliveries, with 35,158 units taking to the country’s roads. This gives hybrids a 42.1% share, up from the 35.3% market hold recorded in 2023.
Meanwhile, petrol registrations fell 1.6% to 27,729 units. The drivetrain took a market share of 33.2%, indicating a sizable gap to hybrids. This was down by 3pp in comparison to the same period last year.
In October 2023, petrol held a 36.2% market share, up 0.9pp on hybrids. Last month, the gap was 8.9pp in hybrids’ favour. This highlights the changing attitudes in the Spanish market and the increased availability of HEV and MHEV technologies.
Diesel saw registrations fall by 17.1% last month, although volumes remained higher than those of BEVs and PHEVs. A total of 7,646 units took to the roads, giving the fuel a 9.2% market share, a 2.6pp drop year on year.
