06 November 2024
Hybrid powertrains drove growth in Germany’s new-car market, which achieved its best October result since 2020. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker investigates the figures.
The German new-car market reached 231,992 registrations last month, an increase of 6% year on year. This equated to an improvement of over 13,000 units. It was the market’s best October result in four years, and followed three consecutive months of decline.
The latest figures from the industry body, the KBA, show that in the year to date, the market was down 0.4%. With nearly 2.35 million deliveries, it was just under 9,000 units behind the same period last year.
PHEV perfection
A large amount of October’s registration result can be attributed to plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). The technology surged 18.2% last month, with 19,337 registrations. This was the greatest growth of any powertrain in the month and PHEV’s biggest volume increase since April. It was also the highest delivery total for the technology since December 2022.
PHEVs accounted for 8.3% of new-car registrations last month. This was the biggest share for the drivetrain in 22 months and was up 0.8 percentage points (pp) on October 2023.
In the first 10 months of the year, deliveries of the technology improved by 8.9%, reaching 152,198 units. This equates to a gap of almost 12,500 units compared to the same period in 2023, and an improvement on the 7.7% year-to-date increase in September. PHEVs took a 6.5% share of the market from January to October, up 0.6pp on the same period last year.
Bland BEV result
On the other hand, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations declined by 4.9% last month, with 35,491 registrations. It was one of the worst-performing powertrains in the month. October marked the technology’s eighth delivery drop so far in 2024.
However, the technology’s market share of 15.3% last month was its second-highest this year, only behind September’s 16.5% share. However, it was 1.8pp below the BEV market share in October 2023.
In the year to date, all-electric vehicle deliveries slumped 26.6%, to 311,881 units. It was also the only major powertrain to record a decline across the first 10 months of 2024. This was nearly 113,000 units down on the same period last year.
BEV’s share sat at 13.3% in the year to date, far below the 18% recorded from January to October 2023.
Trend reversal needed
Compared to 12 months ago, the gap between BEVs and PHEVs has closed. Last month, the two technologies were separated by around 16,000 registrations. In October 2023, the gap stood at almost 21,000 units.
‘More newly registered PHEVs can make a noticeable contribution to CO2 relief compared to pure internal-combustion engines if used appropriately, because users already cover many distances purely electrically. However, to become 100% climate-neutral, the negative trend in BEVs must be reversed quickly,’ said VDIK president André Schmidt.
‘The positive momentum for PHEVs as an important bridging technology is encouraging. But let us not be fooled, e-mobility is not gaining momentum. We must take action now. We need a strong political stimulus to give new momentum to the ramp-up of e-mobility,’ stated ZDK vice president Thomas Peckruhn.
EV improvement
Combining BEV and PHEV deliveries, the electric vehicle (EV) market improved by 2.1% in October with 54,828 units. This was thanks to the plug-in hybrid result. The EV share dropped to 23.6% from the 24.5% recorded one year ago.
From January to October, plug-in volumes were down 17.8%, with 464,079 registrations. This equated to a difference of over 100,000 units, due to BEV’s struggles. This caused a sizeable market share drop of 4.1pp to 19.8%.
‘To strengthen customer confidence, we need reliable framework conditions. Financial incentives for vehicle purchases and further improvements to the charging infrastructure are indispensable prerequisites for the successful ramp-up of electromobility,’ explained Schmidt.
Funding for these developments could come from elsewhere in the transport industry. According to the ZDK, revenues generated from the planned increase in CO2-emitting fossil fuels could be used to counter finance support measures, such as incentives. In the transport sector alone, this will generate additional revenue of €1.5 billion (plus VAT) in the coming year.
‘Revenues from the transport sector must also be reinvested in forward-looking transport projects and must not be used to plug other budget holes,’ highlighted Peckruhn.
Healthy hybrid market
Hybrids, including full hybrids (HEVs) and mild hybrids (MHEVs), saw registrations climb 14.1%, with 65,672 deliveries. This was the second-best performance of any powertrain in October. It was also the technology’s highest delivery total since June, and its best growth since July.
After recording its best-ever share last month, hybrids accounted for 28.3% of registrations in October. This was the joint second-highest share with August and 2pp up on its market hold in October 2023.
The drivetrain was up 11.4% in the first 10 months of 2024, reaching 610,973 deliveries. This meant it had a gap of over 62,500 units compared to the results in the same period last year. Hybrids were the only powertrain to enjoy double-digit growth in the year to date.
The technology captured 26% of the new-car market from January to October, up from 23.3%.
Adding hybrids to the EV total, the electrified sector took a 51.9% share last month, up 1.1pp year on year. This was 4.3pp ahead of the internal-combustion engine (ICE) market, which combines petrol and diesel volumes.
In the first 10 months of the year, the powertrain grouping accounted for 45.8% of registrations, 7.9pp below the ICE market share. This was also 1.4pp behind the electrified sector’s share from the same period in 2023.
Petrol stabilises
Petrol registrations were up 3.7% last month, with 74,264 units. This was its third-best result so far this year in terms of growth. This month of stability in October followed two big declines in August and September.
However, petrol’s share dropped 0.7pp year on year, making up 32% of deliveries last month. This came after a decline to 32.1% in September. It marks the lowest petrol market share since December 2023, when figures were skewed by the sudden end of BEV incentives for private buyers.
In the year to date, petrol volumes were up 2.8%, reaching 845,263 registrations. This equates to a difference of more than 23,000 units. Its share sat at 36%, up 1.1pp on the same period in 2023.
Diesel also recorded a 3.7% rise in deliveries in October, with 36,172 units. Following two months of declines, it was the drivetrain’s best result since June. Yet, it accounted for 15.6% of the new-car market last month, down 0.3pp.
Across the first 10 months of 2024, diesel volumes increased 1.5% to 415,720 registrations. Its share also improved, up 0.3pp to 17.7%.
Mixed ICE result
The ICE market was up 3.7% in October, reaching 110,436 deliveries. This was the powertrain group’s best performance since June. Yet, its share of 47.6% was 1.1pp down compared to 12 months ago.
In the year to date, registrations increased by 2.4%, with 1.26 million units. The grouping accounted for 53.7% of the new-car market in this period, up from 52.3%.
The ‘others’ category, including hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles, natural gas and liquified petroleum gas vehicles, E85/ethanol and other fuels, declined by 9.1% last month to 1,056 deliveries.
This was the worst performance of any powertrain category in October. However, this only resulted in a drop of around 100 units. The segment’s share was stable last month at 0.5%.
In the year to date, deliveries for the powertrain grouping decreased by 4%, with 12,031 units. It accounted for 0.5% of registrations in this period, stable from 12 months ago.
