25 October 2024
The EU new-car market saw hybrid powertrains take the top volume position for the first time in September. Does this signal the end of petrol’s reign? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the data.
The dominance of the internal-combustion engine (ICE) may be at an end. Hybrids, made up of full (HEV) and mild hybrids (MHEVs), led EU registration figures for the first time in September. However, this came amid further struggles for the bloc’s new-car market.
The latest data from ACEA shows that registrations in the EU during September fell by 6.1% year on year. This continues a downward trend that began with the region’s worst performance for over two years in August. However, the market’s performance has been less stable this year. September Was the fourth month to see a decline so far in 2024.
With four of the EU’s biggest markets suffering steep declines, the fall in registrations was inevitable. France ended the month down 11.1%, while Italy suffered a 10.7% decrease, and Germany saw deliveries stagnate by 7%. Other large markets to see a decline included Belgium (down 18.6%) and Sweden (down 8.6%).
The figures were prevented from dropping further by strong performances in Spain (up 6.3%), Poland (up 6.1%) and the Netherlands (up 5.1%).
Hybrids on top
September was the first time that hybrid powertrains, made up of HEVs and MHEVs, overtook petrol to lead the new-car market. This represents a change in buying trends that has been looking more likely in recent months.
A total of 265,724 hybrid models were delivered in the month, up 12.5% compared to September 2023. This meant the technology represented 32.8% of all registrations in the month, up from the 27.4% seen last year.
Hybrid’s rise comes in a year where the powertrain has been slowly building its market share. Between January and June, its percentage of total registrations fluctuated by 0.7 percentage points (pp). However, the powertrain saw a jump in popularity in the third quarter.
From a 29.5% market share in June, it represented 32% of deliveries in July. This came at the expense of petrol, dropping 1pp in market share, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), which fell by 2.1pp. A slight dip occurred in August, as BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) improved. Then September saw a bounce back, as petrol and diesel both stagnated.
In the year-to-date figures, hybrid deliveries grew by 20.1% year on year. It was the only major powertrain to see growth across the first nine months of the year. This has helped its market share over the three quarters of the year improve by 4.9pp, to 30.1%.
Petrol’s downfall
Hybrid’s rise to the top as the most dominant powertrain in a given month owes much to petrol’s decline. Registrations were down by 17.9% in September, with 240,805 petrol-powered units taking to the EU’s roads.
This meant a share of 29.8%, down from 34% recorded in September 2023, and a drop of 3.3pp against August. Last month was the first time in 2024 that petrol has held less than a third of total registrations.
Petrol started the year strongly, but its demise began in May when year-to-date registrations dipped into the negative figures. Since then, the decline has continued, meaning deliveries were down by 4.4% across the first nine months of the year.
Taking to the top
Hybrid’s rise to the top was not evident at the start of 2024. In January, petrol held a 35.2% market share, although this was down considerably on its historic highs following Dieselgate.
However, it was still comfortably ahead of hybrid’s 28.8% share. Both powertrains improved in February, with petrol up 0.3pp month on month, and hybrid increasing by just 0.1pp.
While both powertrains saw fluctuating market shares since then, hybrids improved, while petrol declined consistently since April’s high of 36%.
With petrol’s registration figures struggling, hybrids have taken advantage. Buyers are turning to the powertrain, especially with more carmakers offering MHEV options.
Yet hybrids were not the biggest winner of petrol’s collapse in September. Of all major powertrains, BEVs were the only other technology to see improvement month on month. Registrations increased by 9.8% compared to September last year, while it held 17.3% of the market in the month.
This was an increase of 2.5pp year on year and a 2.9pp improvement on August’s figures. Together, hybrids and BEVs improved their market shares by 4.4pp month on month, the same as the decline in petrol, diesel and PHEVs combined.
BEV difficulties
Yet BEV’s strong performance in September was not enough to turn its difficult year around. The all-electric technology was down 5.8% across the first three quarters of the year, with a market share of 13.1%. This was down 0.9pp compared to the same period in 2023.
The EU’s all-electric market is likely to keep struggling across the rest of 2024. This is thanks to the end of incentives in some markets and the introduction of provisional tariffs on Chinese-built BEVs. But adding the EFTA and UK regions to the EU totals, BEV registrations were only down 2.6% in the first three quarters.
Germany has been the biggest driver of the BEV decline. Its year-to-date figures were 28.6% lower compared to the same point in 2023, equating to a drop of 110,899 units. This has impacted the strong performances of markets such as Belgium (up 40.2%), and Denmark (up 49.1%). France (up 6%), Italy (up 5.4%) and Spain (up 9.8%) have also performed well.
Diesel and PHEVs struggle
Both diesel and PHEV powertrains struggled in the EU new-car market during September. While diesel declines have become expected, its 23.5% drop meant just 84,408 units took to EU roads last month. This left the ICE technology with a 10.4% market share. This was down from 12.8% recorded 12 months previously.
This meant that the ICE market declined 19.4% in September, with a 40.2% share of all registrations. In the first nine months of the year, diesel deliveries were down 11.1%, while ICE registrations declined by 6.3%.
When it comes to electrified powertrains, buyers appear to be shunning PHEVs. They are instead turning to HEVs, MHEVs, and BEVs. PHEVs had the lowest volume of the major powertrains in September, with 54,889 units representing a 22.3% drop in the month. This gave PHEVs an EU market share of just 6.8%, down by 1.4pp.
In the year to date, the technology fared little better. It was down 8.1% across the first nine months of the year, with a 6.9% market share.
This performance meant that despite the rise in BEV registrations, the overall electric vehicle (EV) market suffered a drop in September. Figures were down by 1.7% year on year. Plug-in models managed to grow their market share to almost a quarter (24%). But in the year to date, EVs were down 6.3%, with a 1.5pp drop in share, to 20%.
