08 January 2025
The German new-car market could not save itself from a registration decline in 2024. This was largely due to a slump in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) deliveries. Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, explores the data.
A total of 224,721 new cars took to Germany’s roads in December, down 7.1% or over 17,000 units year on year. This was the market’s worst December performance since 2013.
The country recorded a narrow 0.4% decline from January to November. Now figures from the KBA show the market ended 2024 down 1% on 2023. The 2.81 million registrations total was just 27,000 units behind last year’s tally.
Yet, Germany started 2024 strongly. In the first six months of the year, deliveries rose 5.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Furthermore, Germany’s only double-digit increases last year came in January (up 19.1%) and April (19.8%).
Since then, registrations dropped five times, bringing the 2024 total to seven monthly declines. However, the year’s largest slump in August (down 27.8%) was skewed by a delivery pull-forward effect from 12 months ago.
Due to business incentives for BEVs ending at the start of September, buyers rushed to purchase the technology. This meant it boosted the market to its best month of the year. Without such bonuses in 2024, new-car registrations fell behind.
Removing this month when comparing the two 12-month periods, new-car volumes would have grown 1.9% in 2024. Clearly, the market has struggled in its first full year without any incentives.
BEVs plummet
BEV registrations dropped for the third consecutive month in December. The technology saw volumes slump by 38.6% to 33,561 units. This was a loss of over 21,000 deliveries compared to one year ago. Excluding the powertrain from this month’s total, the market would have grown by 2.1% year on year.
However, December was only the powertrain’s second-worst performance of 2024, with a 68.8% fall in August. These two periods were heavily influenced by the end of incentives in 2023. In total, BEVs endured 10 months of decline last year. Eight of these were double-digit decreases, including six drops of more than 20%.
The powertrain accounted for 14.9% of registrations in December, a stark contrast from its 22.6% share recorded one year ago. This was BEV’s biggest year-on-year share gap of 2024.
In 2024, all-electric vehicle deliveries fell by 27.4% 380,609 units. This was a loss of more than 143,000 units compared to 2023, making it the worst-performing powertrain of the year. It was also the technology’s lowest yearly total since 2021.
Removing BEVs from the full-year total, new-car deliveries would have increased by 5%. The drivetrain captured 13.5% of the market in 2024, down 4.9pp on the previous 12 months. This marked BEV’s smallest full-year share since 2020.
Missed opportunities
Due to this decline, Germany is no longer Europe’s leading BEV market by volume. Thanks to a strong December, registrations for the technology in the UK now lead Germany by over 1,300 units.
‘We look back on a year of missed opportunities for e-mobility. In all other European countries, including the UK, new registrations of electric vehicles are increasing. Only in Germany have politicians still not recognised the need for action in the framework conditions for the ramp-up of e-mobility,’ said Thomas Peckruhn, ZDK vice president and spokesperson for the manufacturer trade in Germany.
Furthermore, stricter CO2 emissions standards will be imposed next year by the EU, which could affect BEV demand. This target is set at 93.6g/km of CO2 across the bloc’s fleet, a 15% reduction compared to the baseline figure set in 2021.
‘In view of the tightened CO2 fleet limits, we must now redouble our efforts to ramp up e-mobility. In addition, we need the introduction of a discounted charging electricity price for e-cars and the rapid expansion of the charging infrastructure.
‘Politicians must also finally show their true colours as to whether they still seriously want the ramp-up of e-mobility. This can only be achieved through additional incentives, such as a purchase bonus. Without these measures, Germany as an automotive location would remain in crisis mode,’ Peckruhn stated.
Incentives required?
VDIK president Imelda Labbé believes that subsidies are needed for strong BEV growth in 2025. ‘[BEV] growth requires improved framework conditions and incentives for the ramp-up of electric mobility,’ she said.
‘A tax incentive for the purchase of electric vehicles, for example in the area of VAT, makes more sense than a pure purchase premium. As a result, customers also benefit from stable residual values of their vehicles,’ Labbé commented.
‘But one thing is clear: open and fair competition is the prerequisite for economic growth in one’s own country. Therefore, tax incentives must be available for vehicles of all brands. After all, innovation can only emerge and the switch to affordable and climate-neutral mobility succeed through competition,’ she explained.
PHEVs push forward
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) registrations grew 6.8% in December, reaching 19,103 units. This result followed two months of double-digit growth in November and October.
The technology made up 8.5% of the new-car market last month. This was its highest share since December 2022, which was skewed by incentive changes. The performance also marked the third consecutive month of PHEVs reaching a share of over 8%.
From January to December, PHEV volumes grew by 9.2% to 191,905 deliveries. This was nearly 16,200 units ahead of 2023.
The powertrain only endured four declines throughout 2024, while sharp growth in January (up 62.6%), February (up 22.3%) and April (up 28.4%) helped push figures forward. PHEVs took a 6.8% share in the full year, up 0.6pp on one year ago.
Combining BEV and PHEV volumes, the electric vehicle (EV) market fell by 27.4% last month, with 52,664 registrations. The powertrain grouping captured 23.4% of the market, significantly behind its 30% share from 12 months ago.
In 2024, plug-in deliveries declined by 18.2% to 572,514 units. This marks the lowest yearly volume total since 2020. EVs accounted for 20.3% of registrations, down 4.3pp on 2023. This was its smallest yearly share in four years.
Hybrids make history
Hybrids, including full and mild hybrids, led the German new-car market for the first time in history. The technology surged 26.7% in December, with 70,570 deliveries. This equated to a gain of almost 15,000 units year on year.
Last month was only the third time hybrids broke the 70,000 unit threshold, while also marking its biggest year-on-year growth of 2024. There were eight double-digit increases last year, five of which were over 20%.
The powertrain accounted for 31.4% of registrations in December. This was its highest-ever share and only the second time hybrids represented over 30% of the market. This was 8.4pp ahead of its market hold from 12 months ago. The powertrain improved on its 2023 share every month last year.
Last month, the technology sat 0.5pp ahead of petrol. In December 2023, petrol led the technology by 8pp.
From January to December, hybrid deliveries improved by 13.7%, reaching 755,493 units. This was an increase of almost 91,000 units compared to 2023. It was the only drivetrain to record double-digit growth last year.
Hybrids made up 26.8% of the new-car market in 2024. This was 3.4pp ahead of 2023, but 8.4pp behind petrol. So, demand is moving away from internal-combustion engines (ICE), but not straight to EVs.
Adding hybrids to the EV total, the electrified market took a 54.8% share last month, up 1.8pp year on year. The powertrain grouping captured 47.1% of the market in 2024, down from 48% in 2023.
Diesel drops again
Diesel registrations dropped 17% in December with 31,031 units. This equated to a loss of over 6,300 units year on year. The drivetrain accounted for 13.8% of deliveries last month, its lowest share since December 2022 and down 1.7pp compared to 12 months ago.
In the full year, diesel volumes fell 0.7% with 483,261 units, despite only suffering five declines in 2024. This was because registrations slumped in August (down 24.4%) and September (down 22%). The powertrain took a 17.2% share in the full year, up 0.1pp.
Petrol falters
Petrol deliveries decreased by 7.4% last month, with 69,333 units. The fuel type captured 30.9% of the market, its lowest share since August 2023 and a decline of 0.1pp year on year.
However, this did not stop petrol from recording growth in 2024, improving registrations by 1.4% with 991,948 units. This was the drivetrain’s best full-year result since 2020. It made up 35.2% of the new-car market, up from the 34.4% share achieved in 2023.
Combining petrol and diesel deliveries, the ICE market fell 10.6% in December, with 100,364 units. The powertrain grouping accounted for 44.7% of the market, down 1.7pp year on year and 10.1pp behind the electrified market.
However, ICE drivetrains made up most of the new-car market in 2024. It captured a 52.4% share, an improvement from its 51.5% hold in 2023 and 5.3pp ahead of electrified volumes.
The ‘others’ category, including hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles, natural gas and liquified petroleum gas vehicles, E85/ethanol and other fuels, dropped 16.9% last month with 1,123 registrations. However, this only equated to a loss of 228 units.
The grouping made up 0.5% of the new-car market in December, down from its 0.6% share recorded 12 months ago.
The category fell 4.9% in 2024 with 14,115 deliveries, a loss of 730 units. It captured 0.5% of the market in the full year, stable from 2023.
